MLB teams are spending less in 2024 (so far)

The average payroll is down roughly 5.3% from the end of the 2023 season

All data in this post comes from fangraphs.com and mlbtraderumors.com

At the conclusion of the 2023 season, the league average payroll of an MLB team was $165 million. The current projected average payroll heading into Opening Day 2024 is $156 million. While there is still time for teams to spend in free agency and even negotiate contract extensions to get those numbers up, spending is still down roughly 5.3% year-over-year. Most fans are well aware of which teams consistently spend at the extremes of each end of the payroll spectrum. Teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and Yankees have consistently found themselves spending the most while the Pirates, Rays, Athletics, and Orioles have spent the least on payroll in recent years. However, we can see some interesting trends if we look at team spending in heading into 2024 in relation to what individual organizations spent the previous season.

The table below shows projected team payroll for 2024 relative to what they spent in 2023. The Orioles, Royals, Dodgers, Rays, and Reds have shown the greatest willingness to invest in their 2024 rosters while the Padres, Athletics, Angels, Twins, and Giants have cut costs the most. It’s important to note that these numbers include projected arbitration salaries. We can see a team like the Mets, who are projected to have the second highest payroll in 2024, actually slashed spending by more than 3 times the league average. The overall trend of cutting payroll costs could be an attempt by teams to extract more value from their rosters.

The next table shows how much each team is spending on a projected per fWAR basis. The Athletics, despite having the 4th lowest projected fWAR total, are actually getting the most value from their roster by spending just $1.59 million per projected fWAR. They’re followed by the Pirates, Orioles, and Rays; all teams expected to accumulate more fWAR than the league average team while also getting a good value for that fWAR due to their lower payrolls. The Rockies are the only team spending more than double the league average for projected fWAR on their roster.

It will be interesting to see how team payroll spending progresses through Spring Training as teams continue to add free agents and even extend players currently on their rosters. Despite the current trend, I do expect the league average payroll to grow and possibly even eclipse the average from the previous season. The teams who are showing a willingness to invest in themselves early on deserve some recognition, and I’ll be watching how much certain teams are willing to spend on a projected per fWAR basis going forward.