Trevor Megill should not take over for Devin Williams as the closer; he should be taking over for Corbin Burnes in the rotation

Megill is undervalued and underutilized in his current role

Back in November, I wrote about Megill and his outlier breaking ball. I’ve been on him since June of 2023 when I first noticed just how unique his curveball is. It’s one of the steepest and hardest pitches in the league:

In addition to this unicorn of a knuckle curve, Megill’s fastball sits 99mph with above average carry. He also has the size and physicality (listed as 6’8, 250 on Fangraphs) to handle a starter’s workload. Why are his talents being underutilized in the Brewer’s bullpen? Teams tend to push pitchers into a relief role for a variety of reasons.

Command

Megill owns an 8.1 BB% at the major league level so far for his career. Among all pitchers with 100 IP since Megill debuted in 2021, this ranks in the 53rd percentile - pretty much average. An average walk rate is good enough to be a starter in the majors; Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Framber Valdez, and Spencer Strider all have similar walk rates during that same time frame and there isn’t much debate about any of those pitchers having good enough command to be starting games.

In addition to his average walk rate, Megill has maintained average command grades from PitchingBot and Stuff+:

We have two independent command metrics telling us that Megill has average command in addition to his average walk rate. We can safely say that he throws enough strikes to not hurt himself with walks or inefficient pitch counts, so his strike throwing ability should not prevent him from a spot in a major league rotation.

Throwing enough strikes doesn’t always indicate the quality of a pitcher’s command. Maybe Megill might not be walking too many batters, but his 44.8% hardhit rate (3rd percentile, min 100 IP since 2021) suggests he isn’t necessarily throwing quality strikes.

Fastballs with high IVB like Megill’s typically play well at the top of the strike zone and above it. The average fastball location height for Megill over the last three seasons has been just 2.69 feet (27th percentile). We can see his average locations last season on the heatmap below:

This heatmap is better than the past where his fastball locations were typically more in the middle of the zone, but it’s still not ideal. His optimal locations for the fastball given it’s shape would be in the upper third and above the zone. Teaching command is tricky, but sometimes it can be about finding the right external cues. For some, this looks like a universal target where a catcher sets up in the same spot every time and pitchers let the natural movement on their pitches do the work. For others, they need to have a target set up a specific way. I know from my own experience teaching and coaching (soccer, but coaching youth teams is pretty similar across many sports) that external cues are much more effective than internal cues. Optimizing Megill’s fastball locations is almost certainly something the Brewers have attempted, but I’m confident there’s a cue out there that will help him make the necessary adjustments. His base level of command is strong enough and he doesn’t have to be perfect every time because he throws another really good pitch with the potential to add a viable third pitch.

Arsenal

Another popular reason to put a pitcher in a bullpen instead of a rotation is that they don’t throw enough different pitches to effectively navigate a lineup multiple times. At surface level, we can see Megill threw just two pitches last season — his fastball and breaking ball. He has experimented with a sinker and slider in the past; the former looks like a misread on some of his fastball shapes by Statcast, and the latter was something he scrapped last season in his relief role (more on that later).

Throwing just two pitches makes it easier for hitters to sit on one pitch. Combine that with the fact that Megill has been able to locate his curveball in the zone just 39.6% of the time over the last three seasons (26th percentile among curveball zone rates, min 250 thrown), and we can generate a Sparknotes scouting report: If it’s in the zone, it’s going to be the fastball. To make things even easier on opposing hitters, Megill has thrown his fastball almost 64% of the time over the last three years. Using the fastball 60% along with his limited arsenal and suboptimal fastball locations is not an ideal usage rate. Yes, it’s a good fastball, but as we said earlier, its locations typically aren’t high enough and hitters can pretty much assume anything in the zone is going to be the fastball.

In addition to the external cue mentioned in the previous section, the next adjustment I’d have Megill make is with his arsenal by bringing back his slider and adjusting the shape to flatten it out. The slider Megill threw in the past did not have enough movement separation from his curveball:

Achieving more of a bullet slider/cutter shape would allow for more optimal separation, making it a true “bridge” pitch between the fastball and curve. This new slider/cutter shape doesn’t have to be anything overpowering or unique; Megill just needs another pitch he can land for strikes if we want him in a starting role. Tyler Glasnow is a good comparison here. Similar fastball shapes and locations as Megill, and they both have nasty curveballs that are rarely in the zone. Glasnow implementing a cutter/slider shape helped him reach a new level as a starter. He was able to go deeper into games because he was more efficient with his strike throwing; he could now throw two pitches in the zone except for one. Additionally, Glasnow was no longer a two-pitch pitcher and could attack hitters differently more than two times through a lineup — which also allowed him to go deeper into games and have more success as a starter. Like Glasnow, Megill’s third pitch wouldn’t even have to be that great, just throwing it would make his better pitches more effective. He would also only need to throw his new third pitch at least 20-25% of the time. While it might take some time to get a feel for sequencing his revamped arsenal, the rest of the time he can split between his fastball and curve.

Let’s say Megill does find an external cue that works for him and he picks-up an okay cutter/slider shape that he can throw enough strikes with. What else could hold him back from being a starter?

Platoon Neutrality

Some pitchers don’t last as starters because they are unable to effectively handle opposite handed batters. The verticality of Megill’s arsenal in his high carry, low run fastball and almost 12-6 movement on his curveball are naturally fairly platoon neutral.

During Megill’s career, right-handed batters have slugged .528 (21st percentile min 50 PA 2021-2023) and .500 (12th percentile) against his fastball and curve respectively. Left-handed batters slugged just .385 (67th percentile) and .229 (83rd percentile). against his fastball and curve. Despite the relatively small sample size of his major league career, we can already see that Megill is showing signs of being able to handle LHB which makes sense given his pitch shapes. The issue with his subpar performance against RHB has nothing to do with his shapes or platoon neutrality; it’s mainly about hitters knowing that any pitch in the zone is almost always going to be a fastball and most of his fastballs are not located high enough to be effective.

The addition of a cutter/slider shape discussed earlier would only help him handle left-handed hitters. The less spin efficiency on it, the better so it doesn’t break too much. Glasnow again is a good example here; his bridge pitch had less than 20% of active spin over the past two seasons. Megill’s slider back in 2022 wasn’t too far off at 34%, but even that may have been too much for him. An optimal shape for Megill would have more gyro spin and very little side spin. It’s easier said than done obviously, but being in an environment that is more focused on the process than product where he can tinker with different grips under the guidance of a pitching coach who understands best practice in coaching (and possibly pedagogy) could help Megill unlock another level as a starter.

To sum everything up, Megill could be an interesting (and possibly great) starting pitcher because:

• He has the size and physical attributes to be a starting pitcher

• He throws enough strikes

• He could throw his fastball higher in the zone, and above it sometimes

• He could pick-up his cutter/slider again and tweak the shape until it has enough movement separation from the curve

• He could throw that new cutter/slider in the zone, and use it roughly 20-25% of the time

• He is already platoon neutral with his current shapes, and the addition of a cutter/slider in the similar mold mentioned earlier would only add to that neutrality